Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Bursting the Bubble: Who You're Rooting Against

Welcome to a new daily post here on First and Short where we'll take March Madness to a new level.

Say your team is NC State. You're team is sitting right near the bubble and will need some wins (and some help) to make its way into the 68 team bracket. We'll show you the teams that you want to lose so that your beloved team can make its way into the field. If your team is listed, then you might doing something right.

Teams who are in great shape and unlikely to fall out of the tournament will not be on the list (RPI's in the 20s or better). We use the University of North Florida's NCAA Tournament "Dance Card" for RPI and bubble position. The "Dance Card" correctly predicted all 37 at-large tournament teams. The year before, it correctly predicted 36 of the 37 teams, so we'll say they've got a pretty reliable formula.

Without further ado, here is who you're rooting against today, February 19:

Marquette - RPI: 71. The Golden Eagles could get a big boost as they host No. 11 Creighton tonight at 8pm. Creighton is a 3 point favorite tonight, so this could be a great chance for Marquette to get a very quality win. Game is on Fox Sports 1.

SMU - RPI: 56. The Mustangs are 14 point favorites over Houston tonight at 8pm. A win won't give them much of a boost, but a loss would really knock SMU down a peg, which is good for the rest of y'all bubblers. Game is on ESPN News.

Indiana State - RPI: 65. The Sycamores host Evansville tonight at 7:05. Like SMU, this is a game where winning won't improve Indiana State's stock, but a loss would really hurt- as the Sycamores aren't currently in the field. Indiana State is an 11 point favorite. Game is on ESPN3.

LSU- RPI: 67. Like SMU and Indiana State, LSU shoud win easily tonight. They host Mississippi State as a 14 point favorite 8pm. A loss would be crippling to the Tigers, but is very unlikely. Game is on ESPN3.

Missouri - RPI: 36. Missouri hosts Vanderbilt tonight in an SEC match-up. The Tigers are on the right side of the bubble, but if they are to lose, that could open the door for the Commodores, who have an RPI of 76. I'd say you would want to root for Vanderbilt, as they're unlikely to climb into the tournament, whereas the Tigers could easily fall out. Missouri is a 9 point favorite. Game is on ESPN3.

Arkansas - RPI: 59. Arkansas is on the outside looking in here. A 12 point favorite against a sub-500 South Carolina team tonight at 9pm. Again, a loss hurts more than a win helps the Razorbacks tonight, as this wouldn't be considered a quality win. Game is on ESPN3.

Oregon - RPI: 38. Oregon is a 10 point favorite over Washington tonight at home. This is an important game because Washington has an RPI of 73 and could work there way onto the bubble with some quality wins, but they are not currently a huge threat to make the big dance. Game is at 9pm on ESPN2.

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